The Varian Rule

In a 2017 interview, citing Hal Varian’s theory, Tim O’Reilly accurately predicted that concierge-like healthcare would scale through technology (explores a potential “equivalent of Google Glass”), making at-home care more accessible beyond the wealthy. Developing examples include Renalytix, which is making AI-powered diagnostics a standard tool for early kidney disease risk assessment, and Teal Health, which is improving accessibility to at-home cervical cancer screening devices—both contributing to more accessible, tech-enabled healthcare.

Additional examples of technological diffusion in history include:

‍Streaming Services: In 1972, HBO launched as a service primarily accessible to wealthy households willing to pay a premium for commercial-free films and live sporting events. A subscription was priced at $6.50 per month (around $49 today), with only eight percent of American households receiving basic cable at the time. However, as infrastructure improved and satellite technology advanced through the 1980s, premium content became increasingly accessible for households. This democratization accelerated dramatically with the rise of streaming technology and affordable devices like smart TVs, Roku, and Amazon’s Fire Stick in the 2010s. Today, services like Netflix ($17.99/month) and Disney+ ($15.99/month) have made on-demand entertainment accessible to most American households, just as the Varian Rule predicts.

‍Air Travel: Between 1927-1941, a coast-to-coast round trip came with a price tag of over $200 (almost $3,800 today), limiting air-travel to business travelers and the wealthy. In the 1950s, advancements in jet engine performance led to the development of one-of-a-kind airliners like the Boeing 707 and Douglas DC-8. By 1972, nearly half of all Americans had flown. Fast forward to August 2024, a notable statistic to consider is the 86.8 million flights recorded in the U.S alone. 

‍Electric Vehicles (developing): In 2008, Tesla launched the Roadster at $98,000—an exclusive electric sports car targeting wealthy early adopters and tech enthusiasts (the world’s first all-electric car to use lithium-ion battery cells). This initial high-end vehicle was essential for Tesla's strategy: using revenue from luxury sales to fund the development of more affordable models while proving that electric vehicles were high-performing. Over the next decade, as battery technology improved, production costs decreased, and charging infrastructure expanded, electric vehicles became increasingly accessible to the middle class, with competing models like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt offering more affordable, environmentally-friendly options. Tesla's own democratization unfolded steadily, as they introduced progressively more accessible models. The Model S arrived in 2012 at $57,400, bringing Tesla's technology to the luxury sedan market, followed by the Model 3 in 2017 starting at $35,000—Tesla's first true mass-market vehicle. What began as a $98,000 sports car for the wealthy evolved into accessible electric vehicles for the middle class, with technology and manufacturing improvements enabling Tesla to achieve economies of scale. However, for EV’s to truly see an increase in middle-class adoption, they must cater to non-home owners (e.g an increase in curbside chargers for apartment-dwellers) and present a wider selection of affordable models. 

‍The Affordable New Electric Cars Coming In 2025, 2026 And Beyond

‍Personal Computers: The evolution of personal computers provides one of the more striking demonstrations of the Varian Rule in action, showcasing how a transformative technology can shift from a luxury to a necessity. In the 1970s, early personal computers like the Apple II came with a price tag of $1,298 (equivalent to $6,760 today), while the first IBM PCs in 1981 cost around $1,565 ($5,433 adjusted). The 1980s marked the beginning of middle-class adoption, driven by the introduction of more affordable models like the Commodore 64, priced at $595. Through the increasing commercial availability of microprocessors, crucial shifts, such as the emergence of computer labs, began to occur in schools. This democratization accelerated dramatically in the 1990s with the release of Windows 95, making PCs user-friendly and accessible to the average consumer. 

‍In 2019, almost half of private households worldwide were estimated to have a computer at home.